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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."